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Think Like a Futurist I spent much of the past month immersed in thinking about the future – or more
precisely, thinking about how to think about the future. If we have learned nothing else from the past few years of economic, political, and social turmoil, it is that our world has become more changeable, and our future more unpredictable. Sound strategy is arguably more important than ever for companies to survive and thrive, but the dangers of straight-lining your forecast for the future have never been more apparent.
With these current challenges as a backdrop, I worked with a group of high-powered women, leaders in their profession, over a three-day workshop in April to introduce them to a different way of thinking about the future of their professional association. To really “think like a futurist”, it’s a good idea to move from the customary emphasis on strategic planning to something I like to think of as a “strategic conversation.” Rather
than having as its objective the publication of a Strategic Plan that may or may not ever be executed, the strategic conversation is ongoing, ideally throughout all levels of the organization. When conversation about the future becomes part of the cultural fabric of an organization, important shifts in collective thinking can happen. The strategic conversation at the workshop centered on an approach called “scenario
planning”, whose best-known proponent is Peter Schwartz, author of The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Scenarios, as distinct from strategy options, are essentially stories about the future, stories which enable us
to explore alternative futures and the implications of each one for an industry or organization. Based on an extrapolation of key trends and mixed with plausible hypothetical situations and events, scenarios provide us with a vivid and creative way to learn from the future. Working with a methodology designed to help identify both predetermined forces and critical uncertainties, scenario planners use “scenario logic” to construct the plots of
several alternative scenarios, and then investigate how each would play out in the domains of politics, economics, social forces, technology, and environment. Imagining the scenarios requires that people break out of their shared mindset and question worn-out stereotypes. Brought to life through a series of presentations (my favorites at our weekend workshop involved props, costumes, and music), the scenarios become a
part of corporate folklore. That’s how people keep the strategic conversation going long after the workshop ends. Scenarios would be of little practical use if that’s where the process ended, but it doesn’t. Scenario planning calls for a critical look at what impact these alternative futures would have on the organization, and an in-depth understanding of how to look for and read early indicators of change in the world that could help planners and
leaders anticipate the direction of change. Armed with that knowledge, it’s possible to adapt strategies and actions that are maximized to give an organization the capacity to be flexible and responsive to an uncertain future. What’s more, this kind of strategic conversation enables you to get the jump on your competition by in effect rehearsing the future, learning from it, and incorporating the
lessons into your daily business. So not only will the quality of your Strategic Plan improve dramatically, but the people in your organization will actually take it down from the shelf and use it to inform their decisions, not simply to justify them. As a leader in these uncertain times, thinking like a futurist might be the best way to look like a genius! Could you use some help with your own strategic conversation? Talk to us about
bringing scenario planning into your organization, either through executive or team coaching, or a workshop for your next strategic retreat. Call (410)626-6008, or email info@bloomfieldassociates.com. 
The language we use is a powerful indicator of the enormous changes we have lived through in the past few decades. Think of the words we use without thinking today that weren’t even in
our vocabulary 25 years ago: cell phone, microwave oven, test-tube baby, safe sex, domestic partner, SUV… As a tune-up for thinking like a futurist, over the next few days, as you go about your normal daily activities at work and at home, look for the surprising things already in your environment that will have an impact on the future. What do you notice? |
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A recent survey of 1,000 working Americans found that just 51% agree with the statement "My company generally tells the truth in its communications to employees." Nineteen percent disagreed; 30% had a mixed reaction. Fifty-five percent agreed that "my company tries too hard to put a positive spin on issues in its communications to employees."
Nearly 40% of the 18,000 people at NASA are age 50 or older. Another 22% of NASA's workers are age 55 or older, and employees over 60 outnumber those under 30 by a ratio of about 3 to 1. AOL has found that the Internet is now the primary communication tool for US teenagers. Among 12 to 34-year-olds, 46% voted the Internet as the "most essential" medium to their lives, while 29% picked TV. 
Spim Spam has now come to instant messaging, resulting in “IM spam” -- spim. Although it has been used by marketers for a few years, spim has really taken off in the last six months or so. About 500 million spim messages were generated last year, mostly by “bots.” So it’s probably not surprising that a new product has been launched –
antispim software. 
 Changing Minds: The Art and Science of Changing Our Own and Other People’s Minds, by Howard Gardner. The Harvard psychologist who formulated the theory of multiple intelligences – giving rise to the seemingly unquenchable thirst for understanding emotional intelligence wherever it shows up (or doesn’t) – now offers an original framework for understanding what happens when
we change our minds, and how we can influence the process.
Beth Bloomfield
Executive Coach, Strategy Consultant
Principal, Bloomfield Associates
Share what you’re into — books, articles, movies, music, websites — with others on the list! Send us the title and author or other pertinent information, along with a sentence or two on what you like about it, and if we use it in A Different Optic we’ll not only quote you, we’ll provide a link to you or your website. |
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“Man is the only animal for whom his own existence is a problem which he has to solve.”
— Erich Fromm | |
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Beth Bloomfield will present a half-day public workshop, “Mastering Your World: A Workshop for Leaders and Human Resource Professionals”, on June 25, 2004. The workshop is sponsored by the Howard County Human Resources Society and Howard County Community College, and will be held on the college’s campus in Columbia, Maryland.
Click here for more information and to register. | | |
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